By Kei Emmanuel Duku
South Sudan’s promise of peace is under fire as heavy fighting and airstrikes tear through the country’s northeast, leaving the national ceasefire in tatters.
New reports show that the final month of 2025 was marked by a violent surge in conflict, proving that the peace deal signed years ago is facing its toughest test yet.
The Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring and Verification Mechanism (CTSAMVM), the official group watching over the 2018 peace deal, reported 76 violations in December alone. The violence is at its worst in Upper Nile and Jonglei States, where monitors now warn that the permanent ceasefire is no longer holding.
The situation turned especially bloody on December 23 in Jonglei State’s Nyirol County where Government forces (SSPDF) and opposition troops (SPLM/A-IO) engaged in direct combat after an attack on a military barracks in Waat payam.
The battle resulted in many soldiers being killed and the capture of military equipment. Just days later, on December 29, airstrikes hit parts of Lankien Town, killing several civilians.
CTSAMVM plays a critical role in monitoring South Sudan peace process and currently the peace monitors says it manages six teams across the country tasked to investigate military clashes and to ensure all sides follow the security rules of the peace agreement.
It argues that by documenting these incidents, it will act as an essential check on the forces that promised to stop fighting.
The peace monitor said that as conflict escalates the human cost of this renewed fighting is greatly affecting the implementation of the peace process.
Beyond the battlefield, monitors recorded 25 attacks on civilians and aid workers, as well as three cases of sexual violence committed by armed groups. In areas like Ulang and Nasir, ongoing bombings have forced families to flee their homes in search of safety.
Even with the fighting, monitoring teams were able to travel to remote areas like Raja and Tambura to investigate reports of abuse. In one instance in Raja County, an SSPDF soldier was arrested for killing a civilian. Monitors noted that this arrest is a rare one but important step toward holding people accountable for breaking the law.
The official report makes it clear that the peace is failing in many areas, stating that the high number of hostilities shows that the “increased levels of violence seen throughout much of 2025 persist”. The watchdog group concluded that the ceasefire has been “repeatedly violated” and is currently failing to protect the people in the Upper Nile and Jonglei regions.
The Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) was signed in 2018 to end a long and bloody civil war. A key part of this deal, known as Chapter II, requires a permanent ceasefire and the merging of different rebel groups into one national army. CTSAMVM was created specifically to watch these military groups and report any time they break their promise of peace. While the deal stopped the biggest battles, small-scale fighting between the groups that signed the agreement continues to threaten the country’s future.