South Sudan analyst warns of ‘suicide’ mission ahead of December 2026 Polls

By Kei Emmanuel Duku
A leading South Sudanese analyst has issued a chilling warning regarding the country’s electoral path, suggesting that the current climate of violence turns participation in the December 2026 polls into a near-certain “suicide mission.”
In a stark assessment of the security landscape, an analyst—whom we have chosen not to name for safety concerns—argued that without immediate intervention, both candidates and voters may be forced to carry their own coffins to the ballot box.
The warning comes as concerns mount over the feasibility of holding a peaceful transition amidst ongoing hostilities. “If this is actually how these elections would be conducted with all this violence going on, it would not be wrong to advise the electoral commission and the candidates who are going to participate to actually consider carrying their coffins along with them,” the analyst remarked.
He further noted that the chance of returning alive from campaign trails or voting centers is “very unlikely,” describing the act of participating in hostile areas as “simply taking your life.”
Despite the calls for elections from the presidency and international actors, the analyst pointed to a complete lack of practical preparation by the National Elections Commission (NEC). The body, which is constitutionally mandated to organize the polls, remains silent and underfunded, failing to establish operational offices at state and constituency levels.
“The fact that the National Elections Commission is totally silent about any preparations for elections by this year indicates that the country is not working towards elections,” the analyst observed, adding that it is time for the region to provide support for an inclusive political process to end the crisis.
Critical technical hurdles also remain unaddressed, particularly regarding the delimitation of constituencies. The analyst dismissed the proposed use of 2010 geographic boundaries as “completely unrealistic” given the massive return of millions of citizens since independence and the significant population shifts in cities like Juba.
Furthermore, widespread fighting has displaced entire populations, leaving some 2010 constituencies empty while others have surged in size. Without an update to these realities, the analyst contends that any attempt to hold elections would ignore the fundamental changes on the ground.
Echoing these concerns, Victor Batali Silas, a Human Rights Lawyer and Co-Founder of the Centre for Legal Aid and Justice-South Sudan, questioned the focus on elections while Chapter Five of the Revitalized Agreement remains unfulfilled.
He noted that the reunification of the army has not been achieved, leaving a dangerous security vacuum. “Look, the election is only changing the political order,” Silas noted, warning that it cannot change security equipment or prevent a loser from waging war, citing the historical example of George Athor.