By Alan Clement
Central and northern parts of South Sudan are expected to face dangerous heat conditions this week, even as southern areas receive above-normal rainfall, according to a new regional weather outlook.
The weekly forecast issued by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) indicated that temperatures above 32°C are likely across central to eastern South Sudan between March 11 and March 18, with elevated heat stress levels classified in the “Extreme Caution” category and bordering on “Danger”.
The regional climate centre, which monitors weather patterns across the Greater Horn of Africa, warned that the heat conditions could affect communities in central and northern South Sudan, particularly where daytime temperatures are expected to remain consistently high.
“High temperatures above 32 degrees Celsius are expected over central to eastern parts of South Sudan,” ICPAC said in its weekly forecast bulletin, adding that the resulting heat stress levels could pose risks to vulnerable populations.
The heat stress advisory placed parts of South Sudan among several areas across the region facing potentially dangerous temperature conditions. ICPAC said similar levels of elevated heat stress are also forecast for eastern areas of Tanzania, eastern Kenya and south-western parts of Somalia.
Heat stress warnings are usually issued when high temperatures combine with humidity levels that make it difficult for the human body to cool itself effectively. Under such conditions, people engaged in outdoor labour, children, and the elderly are particularly vulnerable to heat-related illnesses.
Despite the extreme temperatures expected in many parts of the country, southern regions of South Sudan are forecast to receive more rainfall than usual during the same period.
According to ICPAC, most of southern South Sudan will likely experience light rainfall of less than 50 millimetres during the week, though the amounts will be above the seasonal average for this time of year.
The rainfall outlook reflects broader weather patterns across East Africa, where a number of countries are expected to receive significant precipitation.
ICPAC forecasts moderate rainfall ranging from 50 to 200 millimetres across much of Rwanda, Burundi and large parts of Tanzania, as well as some areas of southern Uganda and south-western Ethiopia.
Across the Greater Horn of Africa, ICPAC said temperatures are expected to remain generally warmer than usual during the forecast period, although cooler conditions may occur in highland regions such as the Ethiopian highlands and parts of western Kenya.
For South Sudan, the combination of rising heat and scattered rainfall highlights the country’s increasingly variable climate patterns. Seasonal transitions often bring fluctuating weather conditions as the region gradually moves toward the main rainy season.
Such variability has become more common across the Horn of Africa in recent years, with prolonged heat waves, erratic rainfall and extreme weather events increasingly affecting livelihoods.
In South Sudan, where many communities depend on rain-fed agriculture and livestock, weather patterns play a critical role in determining food production and water availability.
Southern states, which are expected to receive the week’s rainfall, are among the country’s key agricultural zones. Even light precipitation at this time of year can support early farming activities and replenish water sources ahead of the main rainy season.
However, prolonged high temperatures in other parts of the country could place pressure on water supplies and increase health risks, particularly in urban centres and pastoral areas.
Regional climate experts have repeatedly warned that countries across the Greater Horn of Africa are among the most vulnerable to climate change, with rising temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns likely to intensify in coming decades.
ICPAC, a specialised climate monitoring centre under the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, provides regular forecasts to help governments, humanitarian agencies and farmers prepare for changing weather conditions.
Authorities across the region often rely on such forecasts to plan disaster preparedness, agricultural activities and public health responses during periods of extreme weather.